Behind the Maduro Kidnapping: Oil Returns to the Heart of the Conflict and the Making of a New Global Order

By: Major General Hossam Salama – Strategic Expert and Political Analyst

The discussion surrounding the operation targeting—or what has been reported in the media as the “kidnapping” of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—has sparked intense debate and division within international political and media circles. This is not only due to the inherent risk of the move itself but also because of its broader implications, which extend beyond Maduro personally, touching on the reshaping of U.S. influence in South America and possibly the redefinition of the global order as a whole.

Global Division Over the Operation

From the very beginning, the world split into two clear camps.

The first camp views the event—or the planned operation—as nothing more than international political bullying, a blatant violation of the sovereignty of a United Nations member state, and a reinforcement of power politics by force. This represents a direct threat to international law and recalls outdated interventionist models.

The second camp, however, sees it as a calculated display of power, a political message demonstrating that the United States still possesses the ability to act decisively, signaling the end of hesitation or retreat, particularly in its immediate geographical sphere.

This division is not only ethical but fundamentally strategic: countries wary of expanding U.S. influence view the event as a dangerous precedent, while Washington’s allies interpret it as a recalibration of deterrence and balance of power.

Trump and the Principle of Influence

Former U.S. President Donald Trump approached the Venezuelan file with the aim of reasserting traditional American influence, in clear alignment with the Monroe Doctrine, which regards South America as a direct U.S. sphere of influence.

The message is clear: no competing international powers or hostile regimes should expand within America’s neighborhood, and those who violate this framework will face consequences.

Trump’s Gains from the Move

The move toward Venezuela and the discussion about targeting its president achieves several domestic and international objectives simultaneously, including:

Fulfilling his campaign promise to combat transnational drug trafficking while projecting the image of a decisive leader capable of making tough decisions.

Regaining some of his waning popularity and unifying the Republican Party against Democrats, particularly after Democratic efforts to regain influence in the U.S. Congress.

Sending a message of strength abroad, demonstrating that the U.S. can reshape the strategic landscape in its region whenever it chooses.

Oil: The Core of the Real Conflict

Oil remains the most sensitive factor in this scenario. Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world, estimated at about 300 billion barrels, compared to roughly 267 billion barrels for Saudi Arabia. This reality places Venezuela at the center of any global energy equation and makes it a perpetual target of political and economic conflict.

In this context, the United States now directly or indirectly controls most oil production in South America, with its companies playing a pivotal role in extraction and export in countries such as Guyana, Brazil, and Mexico. This situation opens the door to major shifts in the control of global oil markets and reduces Venezuela’s ability to export oil to China, one of its key international allies.

A Message to Russia and China

These developments cannot be separated from the broader international dimension. Venezuela is one of Russia and China’s most important allies in South America. Any U.S. pressure or action against Caracas sends a direct message to Moscow and Beijing that Washington is reclaiming the initiative and closing spaces that previously allowed their expansion within the U.S. strategic sphere.

The Operation and the New Global Order

In this context, the events cannot be separated from the contours of the emerging new global order, which is taking shape on the ruins of old balances. Sovereignty alone is no longer sufficient, and international law is no longer the ultimate arbiter in managing conflicts. The world is entering a phase where international relations are increasingly governed by flexible power, with energy, economy, and influence used as decisive tools in an open struggle for the leadership of the next global order.

Conclusion

Thus, what lies behind the discussion of Maduro’s kidnapping extends far beyond a single event, leader, or state. It reflects a broader struggle over redrawing global influence maps. We are witnessing a delicate transitional moment, where centers of power are being reorganized, and the future of the international system is being written in the language of hard interests, rather than slogans or old rules.